A Google Branded Smartwatch Could Bring In About $4 Billion To Google’s Top Line By 2023

An Overview Of The Wearables Market

• Apple leads the wearables market with about 46.2 million shipments in 2018, followed by Xiaomi with 23 million, Fitbit with 14 million and Huawei with 16.4 million. (Data for 2017 onward also includes smart earphones. Historical data source: IDC)
• Apple’s Wearable ASP is higher compared to peers, considering the higher price points on the Apple Watch ($200 to $1,000+). Xiaomi, on the other hand, has the lower ASP, given its focus on low-end fitness trackers.
• We estimate that Apple’s Wearables Revenues stood at about $13 billion in 2018, followed by Fitbit and Huawei with about $1.5 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively.

For more details on the wearables market and how Google’s rival Apple is faring, view our interactive dashboard analysis on the Revenue Potential Of A Google Branded Smartwatch.

Estimating Google’s Smartwatch Shipments

• We estimate that the global wearables market will grow from about 292 million units in 2021 to over 375 million by 2023.
• We estimate that a Google-branded smartwatch could garner about a 1% share of the global wearables market by 2021, with the number rising to 4% by 2023.
• This would translate into shipments of 3 million in 2021 growing to 15 million in 2023.
• If we assume an average selling price of about $250 for the smartwatch, slightly ahead of the starting price of $200 for the legacy Apple Watch Series 3, but well below the $400 price of the Series 5, this would translate into revenues of over $3.7 billion by 2023.

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In early November, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) introduced plans to accumulate health monitoring pioneer Fitbit for about $2.1 billion, in a transfer that indicators the Web behemoth’s growing curiosity within the fast-growing wearables market. Whereas the corporate already has some publicity to the smartwatch house, offering the Put on OS to smartwatch distributors corresponding to Fossil, these merchandise haven’t actually gained a lot traction as a consequence of weak efficiency and the shortage of compelling designs. We imagine that Google might leverage Fitbit’s expertise within the wearables house and the power of its Android platform to launch its personal smartwatch, on the strains of what it did within the smartphone market with the Pixel gadgets. We imagine that such a tool could possibly be positioned above its Fitbit choices. Primarily based on our evaluation, we estimate that Google might add as a lot as $four billion to its revenues by 2023 if it is ready to launch a compelling wearable system. This interprets into below three% of the corporate’s FY’18 revenues of $137 billion. On this evaluation, we offer an outline of the wearables market and try the potential revenues that Google might garner from the system.

View our interactive dashboard evaluation on What’s The Income Potential Of A Google Branded Smartwatch?

An Overview Of The Wearables Market

• Apple leads the wearables market with about 46.2 million shipments in 2018, adopted by Xiaomi with 23 million, Fitbit with 14 million and Huawei with 16.four million. (Knowledge for 2017 onward additionally contains good earphones. Historic information supply: IDC)
• Apple’s Wearable ASP is greater in comparison with friends, contemplating the upper value factors on the Apple Watch ($200 to $1,000+). Xiaomi, then again, has the decrease ASP, given its deal with low-end health trackers.
• We estimate that Apple’s Wearables Revenues stood at about $13 billion in 2018, adopted by Fitbit and Huawei with about $1.5 billion and $zero.eight billion, respectively.

For extra particulars on the wearables market and the way Google’s rival Apple is faring, view our interactive dashboard evaluation on the Income Potential Of A Google Branded Smartwatch.

Estimating Google’s Smartwatch Shipments

• We estimate that the worldwide wearables market will develop from about 292 million items in 2021 to over 375 million by 2023.
• We estimate that a Google-branded smartwatch might garner a few 1% share of the worldwide wearables market by 2021, with the quantity rising to four% by 2023.
• This might translate into shipments of three million in 2021 rising to 15 million in 2023.
• If we assume a mean promoting value of about $250 for the smartwatch, barely forward of the beginning value of $200 for the legacy Apple Watch Sequence three, however effectively beneath the $400 value of the Sequence 5, this is able to translate into revenues of over $three.7 billion by 2023.

What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Groups| Product, R&D, and Advertising and marketing Groups Extra Trefis Knowledge Like our charts? Discover instance interactive dashboards and create your individual