2020 Super Bowl betting tips: What stats, power ratings say about 49ers-Chiefs line, props and more

Tremendous Bowl LIV is right here, and it will be the Chiefs and 49ers battling for the fitting to be referred to as champions. Patrick Mahomes rallied his group again from double-digit deficits in back-to-back weeks to win the AFC, whereas the 49ers went ground-and-pound in dominant wins over the Vikings and Packers.

The road is sitting at Chiefs -1 in some locations, Chiefs -1.5 in others, so the market believes these are two comparatively equal groups. And that is sensible, as each have been most likely among the many three greatest groups within the NFL this yr (together with the Ravens). As a result of each groups are so robust, we’re seeing the whole on the sport rise nearly with every passing day, as a quantity that opened as little as 51.5 in some spots is now between 53.5 and 54.5 relying on the place you look. However most individuals anticipated a shootout in final yr’s Tremendous Bowl as nicely, although what we acquired was a 13-Three Patriots win that sunk all Over bets, whether or not on the whole or most props within the recreation.

We’ll have loads on the playing angles on this matchup over the subsequent week-plus each right here and at SportsLine, however right this moment we’re going to try some metrics and go over a couple of eventualities for Tremendous Bowl LIV. In case you have a very good deal with on the sport this early, you will be able to pounce and discover wonderful worth when sportsbooks launch their prop sheets.

If you wish to know which picks I like, you’ll find that data on the SportsLine hyperlink under, the place all my rated performs seem in the course of the season together with my 5 SuperContest picks every week and loads of nice evaluation from a improbable assortment of consultants. You can too try the place all our CBS Sports activities workers lands on the large recreation proper right here.

The Decide Six Podcast that includes Will Brinson broke down the playing angles for the Tremendous Bowl on Friday’s blowout episode, with unfold, whole and prop picks from Pete Prisco and R.J. White, enjoyable prop discuss with Ryan Wilson and John Breech, plus DFS ideas from Heath Cummings. Give it a hear under and make sure to subscribe in your favourite podcast platform:

My picks

Over at SportsLine, I will be posting my decide within the days to come back, however it’s also possible to try the picks which can be reside proper now and see what attention-grabbing angles the SportsLine consultants have uncovered. Be a part of now and use promo code WHITE for $1 in your first month and you may get mine and each SportsLine skilled’s picks all year long, in addition to my SuperContest picks every Saturday in the course of the common season. After a Four-1 end in Week 17, I managed to scrape collectively a 53.7% hit fee. That wasn’t almost adequate to complete within the cash, nevertheless it does give me a 57.2% hit fee during the last 5 years within the contest (a 425-pick pattern dimension).

Get into the playoff motion by taking part in CBS Sports activities Playoff Decide’em. Decide the video games in your free probability to win $5,000 or begin a completely customizable pool with mates. Phrases apply.  

49ers vs. Chiefs (-1)

Dwelling-field benefit: n/a
Energy ranking line: Chiefs -1
Opening line: Chiefs -1

Some sportsbooks opened the Tremendous Bowl line as a decide ’em, however by Sunday evening most locations had the Chiefs as a brief favourite, whether or not by one or 1.5 factors. My energy scores had the Chiefs as a degree higher going into the convention championship video games, and I did not see a purpose to change that after each groups gained convincingly.

Stats to know

File vs. unfold	11-6-1	12-5-1
File vs. playoff groups	5-2	5-Three
Power of schedule rank	12	13
Yards per play differential	+1.Three	+Zero.eight
Weighted DVOA	32.2	44.1
Factors per drive offense rank	Four	2
Factors per drive protection rank	Four	15
Cross offense DVOA rank	eight	2
Cross protection DVOA rank	2	6
Run offense DVOA rank	13	14
Run protection DVOA rank	11	29

You possibly can see why the betting line has these groups nearly even. Yards per play differential provides the 49ers the sting, however weighted DVOA, which reductions the primary half of the season and may very well be a extra correct measure of the matchup for that purpose attributable to Patrick Mahomes’ harm, says the Chiefs have an edge. My DVOA line projection has the sport at Chiefs -Three, so if weighted DVOA is correct, there’s a bit worth on the AFC group.

The Chiefs have the extra dynamic offense, however the 49ers do carry among the best cross defenses within the league into this recreation, one which ranks first in internet yards per try allowed. If that protection can hold the sport shut, it is simple to see how the 49ers can pull off the win: run, run and run some extra.

The Chiefs rank 29th in each yards per rush try and rush DVOA, however in addition they stepped up in a large manner within the AFC title recreation, holding a harmful Titans speeding assault to simply 85 yards. If they will rediscover that success to decelerate the 49ers speeding assault, that places the sport on the arm of Jimmy Garoppolo. He was no slouch within the common season however has barely needed to break a sweat in his group’s two dominant wins over the Vikings and Packers.

How you must wager

There are a number of potential scripts to this recreation, however the two most probably ought to decide the place you place your cash. We’ll go over each eventualities under.

Mahomes an excessive amount of for 49ers protection

On this state of affairs, Patrick Mahomes is simply as unstoppable as he is been over most of his profession. Mahomes connects on a number of large performs, and the Chiefs’ No. 1 third-down offense wins the battle in opposition to the 49ers’ No. 2 third-down protection. This is able to possible take a large effort from the Chiefs’ offensive line to carry off a 49ers cross rush that may do injury with simply its entrance 4, however contemplating Kansas Metropolis ranks fourth in adjusted sack fee on offense, it is a problem they will meet.

With the Chiefs offense lighting up the scoreboard, it is then on Jimmy Garoppolo to reply the way in which he did within the 48-46 win over the Saints within the common season. A giant Mahomes recreation makes it possible the Chiefs win and canopy, nevertheless it actually is not a given if Garoppolo steps up.

What to wager:

• Chiefs -1
• Chiefs group whole Over 27.5
• Tyreek Hill anytime TD scorer +110
• Garoppolo Over Zero.5 interceptions

49ers’ run recreation, protection roll once more

On this state of affairs, the 49ers’ protection wins the battle in opposition to Mahomes, creating constant strain with its entrance 4 and never permitting the Chiefs protection to select up chunks of yards at a time. With the Kansas Metropolis offense unable to run away, the 49ers can persist with working the ball as a lot as they need, making the most of the Chiefs’ defensive weak spot to get out to an early lead they by no means relinquish.

The powerful factor for the 49ers is that Mahomes has proven that no lead is secure. He rallied his group again from 24-Zero in a playoff recreation to take a lead into halftime. Who does that? Even when the 49ers maintain a lead within the second half, there will definitely be cash coming in on the Chiefs’ reside line in the course of the recreation.

What to wager:

• 49ers +1
• Beneath 55.5 (as soon as it will get there)
• 49ers Over 2.5 sacks (estimated)
• Raheem Mostert scores 2+ TDs +400
• Mahomes Over Zero.5 interceptions